Tue, Feb 7, 2012·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
St. Louis Blues 3, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 28 | 15 | 05 | 318 |
| OTT | 09 | 112 | 08 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:37STLChris PorterAssists: Roman Polak · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 3:49STLDavid PerronGWGAssists: Patrik Berglund, Barret Jackman · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–0
- P2 0:56OTTDaniel AlfredssonPPAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Jason Spezza · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 6:35STLDavid PerronAssists: David Backes, T.J. Oshie · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:22OTTZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:22STLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:18STLB.J. Crombeen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:55STLAlex Pietrangelo: Holding2 min
- P2 13:53OTTNick Foligno: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:07STLDavid Perron: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:14OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:14STLRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:33STLPatrik Berglund: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestD'Agostini – Berglund – Perron2:30
xG 0.48–0.05 (91%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Backes – Oshie – Perron5:22
xG 0.31–0.11 (73%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Langenbrunner – Backes – Oshie5:11
xG 0.30–0.12 (72%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Porter – Sobotka – Stewart3:43
xG 0.09–0.01 (87%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Shattenkirk13:18
xG 0.81–0.26 (75%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Colaiacovo – Pietrangelo16:15
xG 0.42–0.41 (51%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Jackman – Polak3:40
xG 0.10–0.14 (42%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Michalek – Greening9:58
xG 0.49–0.21 (70%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Alfredsson – Condra – Turris8:26
xG 0.13–0.03 (80%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Neil – Foligno – Turris2:01
xG 0.01–0.23 (4%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Konopka – Daugavins – O'Brien3:42
xG 0.04–0.32 (11%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Phillips4:26
xG 0.24–0.05 (84%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Phillips – Karlsson4:03
xG 0.15–0.10 (59%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Phillips – Carkner4:18
xG 0.05–0.08 (41%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).