Tue, Feb 7, 2012·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Vancouver Canucks 4, Nashville Predators 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 311 | 06 | 012 | 02 | 2 | 431 |
| NSH | 116 | 212 | 09 | 03 | 1 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:42VANRyan KeslerPPAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Dan Hamhuis · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 13:47NSHColin WilsonAssists: David Legwand, Patric Hornqvist · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 18:21VANByron BitzAssists: Henrik Sedin, Kevin Bieksa · Slap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P1 18:44VANDaniel SedinAssists: Byron Bitz, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–1
- P2 4:14NSHSergei KostitsynAssists: Kevin Klein, Martin Erat · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 5:16NSHMike FisherAssists: Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. VAN Mason Raymond stopped
- 2. NSH Sergei Kostitsyn stopped
- 3. VAN Ryan Kesler stopped
- 4. NSH Martin Erat stopped
- 5. VAN Alexandre Burrows scored
- 6. NSH David Legwand scored
- 7. VAN Daniel Sedin stopped
- 8. NSH Mike Fisher stopped
- 9. VAN Cody Hodgson stopped
- 10. NSH Ryan Ellis stopped
- 11. VAN Alexander Edler scored
- 12. NSH Colin Wilson stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:57VANCody Hodgson: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:12NSHBrandon Yip: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 15:19VANDavid Booth: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:46VANAaron Rome: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 18:22VANAlexandre Burrows: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Bitz3:49
xG 0.33–0.03 (92%)attempts 4–2goals 2–0
- Burrows – Kesler – Booth3:44
xG 0.39–0.10 (79%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows2:49
xG 0.08–0.01 (89%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Hansen – Raymond – Hodgson2:41
xG 0.10–0.04 (73%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBallard – Rome12:57
xG 0.74–0.49 (60%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
- Hamhuis – Bieksa18:25
xG 0.58–0.57 (50%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Salo – Edler15:59
xG 0.54–0.86 (38%)attempts 12–14goals 2–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Hornqvist – Wilson9:50
xG 0.65–0.20 (76%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Fisher – Erat – Kostitsyn12:32
xG 0.65–0.51 (56%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Smithson – Halischuk – Smith6:24
xG 0.13–0.17 (43%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Yip – Spaling7:50
xG 0.01–0.22 (6%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Josi13:29
xG 0.82–0.49 (63%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Suter – Weber18:28
xG 0.78–0.74 (51%)attempts 17–13goals 2–0
- Bouillon – Ellis10:17
xG 0.29–0.32 (47%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).