Tue, Feb 7, 2012·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 16 | 07 | 05 | 118 |
| WPG | 19 | 18 | 012 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:06TORPhil KesselAssists: Joffrey Lupul, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 14:16WPGChris ThorburnAssists: Zach Bogosian, Jim Slater · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 9:47WPGBryan LittleGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler, Johnny Oduya · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:43WPGNik Antropov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:00TORPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:54WPGJohnny Oduya: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:54TORJoey Crabb: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:17WPGAlexander Burmistrov: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:10TORJoey Crabb: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestConnolly – Lombardi – Crabb8:43
xG 0.30–0.10 (74%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kessel2:36
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin9:18
xG 0.09–0.19 (33%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Armstrong – Steckel – Brown7:27
xG 0.22–0.38 (37%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gardiner2:53
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson13:16
xG 0.42–0.28 (60%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Liles – Phaneuf2:21
xG 0.08–0.05 (59%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little14:27
xG 0.86–0.33 (72%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Miettinen – Gagnon – Burmistrov8:08
xG 0.40–0.23 (64%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Antropov – Fehr – Kane10:10
xG 0.29–0.18 (62%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Glass10:15
xG 0.24–0.13 (65%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bogosian16:13
xG 0.79–0.30 (73%)attempts 15–10goals 2–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien16:13
xG 0.60–0.32 (65%)attempts 18–11goals 0–1
- Oduya – Stuart12:49
xG 0.27–0.46 (37%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).