Tue, Feb 7, 2012·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Phoenix Coyotes 4, Dallas Stars 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 19 | 18 | 27 | 424 |
| DAL | 08 | 111 | 010 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:43PHXKeith YandleAssists: Kyle Chipchura, Gilbert Brule · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 2:34DALMichael RyderAssists: Philip Larsen · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 14:30PHXRadim VrbataGWGAssists: Rostislav Klesla, Ray Whitney · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 5:41PHXRaffi TorresAssists: Michal Rozsival, Daymond Langkow · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 16:09PHXDerek MorrisAssists: Radim Vrbata, Ray Whitney · Slap, 0.07 xG4–1
Penalties (4)
- P2 7:02PHXMikkel Boedker: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 15:49DALVernon Fiddler: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:52PHXKyle Chipchura: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:56PHXRostislav Klesla: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Gordon – Korpikoski13:18
xG 0.82–0.20 (80%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Chipchura – Brule8:34
xG 0.41–0.17 (71%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Langkow – Torres – Boedker7:11
xG 0.30–0.13 (70%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal12:52
xG 0.75–0.86 (47%)attempts 12–15goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestAucoin – Yandle17:13
xG 1.25–0.52 (70%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Klesla – Ekman-Larsson10:56
xG 0.85–0.22 (79%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Morris – Rozsival15:47
xG 0.65–0.58 (53%)attempts 18–15goals 2–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPetersen – Wandell – Vincour3:59
xG 0.35–0.14 (72%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Ryder – Ott – Benn12:19
xG 0.30–0.65 (32%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Ribeiro – Nystrom – Eriksson10:58
xG 0.38–0.73 (34%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Burish11:33
xG 0.20–0.94 (17%)attempts 4–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Souray – Robidas13:25
xG 0.51–0.55 (48%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Daley – Grossmann13:32
xG 0.42–0.55 (44%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Larsen16:44
xG 0.31–1.51 (17%)attempts 11–22goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).