Wed, Feb 8, 2012·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Edmonton Oilers 2, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 04 | 15 | 18 | 217 |
| DET | 15 | 115 | 210 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:18DETJohan FranzenPPAssists: Ian White, Pavel Datsyuk · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 2:45DETCory EmmertonAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Daniel Cleary · Backhand, 0.33 xG0–2
- P2 11:08EDMSam GagnerAssists: Ryan Jones, Jeff Petry · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 8:23EDMSam GagnerPPAssists: Magnus Paajarvi · Backhand, 0.32 xG2–2
- P3 10:46DETDrew MillerGWGAssists: Justin Abdelkader · Backhand, 0.35 xG2–3
- P3 14:44DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Brad Stuart, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 6:03EDMRyan Jones: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:03DETJustin Abdelkader: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:03DETJustin Abdelkader: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:10EDMEric Belanger: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 15:27DETCory Emmerton: Holding2 min
- P1 16:13DETBrad Stuart: Boarding2 min
- P2 5:11EDMLadislav Smid: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:17EDMEric Belanger: Boarding2 min
- P2 15:29DETTomas Holmstrom: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 18:34DETTodd Bertuzzi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:13EDMAles Hemsky: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:31DETJustin Abdelkader: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:42DETIan White: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gagner won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Gagner – Eberle – Hall8:19
xG 0.11–0.11 (50%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Eager – Jones – Lander4:08
xG 0.05–0.22 (20%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Horcoff – Hemsky – Paajarvi9:32
xG 0.25–0.49 (33%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Smyth – Belanger – Petrell7:46
xG 0.08–1.06 (7%)attempts 5–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Petry13:56
xG 0.36–0.18 (66%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Whitney4:07
xG 0.10–0.14 (42%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Whitney – Potter7:32
xG 0.09–0.59 (14%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Filppula – Hudler10:33
xG 0.71–0.25 (74%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Miller – Abdelkader – Helm2:46
xG 0.46–0.10 (83%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Franzen10:27
xG 0.31–0.20 (61%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Abdelkader – Emmerton2:49
xG 0.04–0.02 (71%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Kronwall12:23
xG 1.63–0.21 (88%)attempts 15–6goals 3–0
- Ericsson – Kindl10:31
xG 0.30–0.16 (66%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Lidstrom – White12:41
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).