Thu, Feb 9, 2012·Prudential Center, Newark
St. Louis Blues 4, New Jersey Devils 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 17 | 110 | 16 | 03 | 1 | 426 |
| NJD | 17 | 29 | 09 | 02 | 0 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:46NJDZach ParisePPAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Kurtis Foster · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 18:43STLChris StewartAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, Chris Porter · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 4:50STLDavid PerronAssists: David Backes, Barret Jackman · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 5:35NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Andy Greene, Alexei Ponikarovsky · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 9:12NJDPatrik EliasAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Petr Sykora · Snap, 0.27 xG2–3
- P3 14:10STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Roman Polak, Chris Stewart · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NJD Ilya Kovalchuk stopped
- 2. STL T.J. Oshie scored
- 3. NJD Patrik Elias stopped
- 4. STL Jamie Langenbrunner stopped
- 5. NJD Zach Parise stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:58STLBarret Jackman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 1:15NJDKurtis Foster: Boarding5 min
- P3 1:15NJDKurtis Foster: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 5:10STLDavid Perron: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:44STLDavid Backes: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Oshie – Perron14:51
xG 0.90–0.18 (83%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Porter – Stewart – Berglund2:54
xG 0.31–0.11 (74%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Porter – Sobotka – Stewart7:32
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
- Nichol – Crombeen – Reaves5:04
xG 0.00–0.11 (2%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Russell11:03
xG 0.98–0.18 (85%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Jackman – Shattenkirk11:16
xG 0.40–0.38 (52%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Jackman – Polak4:17
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Sykora – Zubrus – Clarkson12:25
xG 0.20–0.23 (46%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – Bernier – Henrique11:03
xG 0.11–0.19 (37%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Elias – Kovalchuk – Parise13:16
xG 0.30–0.53 (36%)attempts 10–9goals 0–2
- Boulton – Janssen – Josefson4:00
xG 0.00–0.61 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Taormina6:46
xG 0.47–0.16 (74%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Foster – Greene6:30
xG 0.12–0.11 (53%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Foster – Taormina5:37
xG 0.12–0.13 (48%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).