Thu, Feb 9, 2012·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 05 | 312 | 010 | 327 |
| PHI | 116 | 314 | 09 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:38PHIScott HartnellAssists: Erik Gustafsson · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 0:54TORTyler BozakAssists: Phil Kessel, Luke Schenn · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 3:32PHIMax TalbotAssists: Andrej Meszaros · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 5:57TORJoffrey LupulPPAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.52 xG2–2
- P2 13:53PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Scott Hartnell, Jaromir Jagr · Snap, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 15:07PHIBrayden SchennGWGAssists: Daniel Brière, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–4
- P2 18:09TORTyler BozakAssists: Luke Schenn, Joffrey Lupul · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:21PHIBrayden Schenn: High sticking2 min
- P1 3:34TORLuke Schenn: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:45TORMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:45PHIZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:38TORDion Phaneuf: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:38PHIScott Hartnell: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:38PHIScott Hartnell: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:45TORJake Gardiner: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:14PHIAndrej Meszaros: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:31TORCarl Gunnarsson: Interference2 min
- P3 9:33TORMikhail Grabovski: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 17:53PHIMax Talbot: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brière won the faceoff against Steckel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Kessel – Bozak11:42
xG 0.86–0.51 (63%)attempts 13–15goals 2–1
- Armstrong – Steckel – Brown5:06
xG 0.40–0.11 (78%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin9:34
xG 0.23–0.34 (41%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Connolly – Lombardi – Crabb8:07
xG 0.27–0.60 (31%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Gardiner11:41
xG 1.03–0.75 (58%)attempts 22–15goals 2–1
- Liles – Franson9:14
xG 0.29–0.07 (82%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson12:27
xG 0.48–0.38 (55%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Simmonds – Schenn11:25
xG 0.86–0.29 (75%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Talbot – Voracek – Couturier2:05
xG 0.02–0.03 (43%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Jagr – Hartnell – Giroux11:04
xG 0.46–0.64 (42%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
- Talbot – Voracek – Read7:22
xG 0.21–0.40 (34%)attempts 11–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Bourdon14:09
xG 0.91–0.44 (67%)attempts 18–17goals 1–0
- Meszaros – Gustafsson13:53
xG 0.57–0.28 (67%)attempts 17–8goals 3–0
- Timonen – Coburn10:47
xG 0.28–0.79 (26%)attempts 9–13goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).