Thu, Feb 9, 2012·Verizon Center, Washington
Winnipeg Jets 3, Washington Capitals 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 04 | 011 | 211 | 01 | 2 | 327 |
| WSH | 012 | 012 | 28 | 02 | 1 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 9:46WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Alexander Semin, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P3 12:30WSHAlexander SeminPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Dennis Wideman · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P3 17:45WPGEvander KanePPAssists: Andrew Ladd, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.00 xG1–2
- P3 17:57WPGDustin ByfuglienPPUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. WSH Alex Ovechkin scored
- 2. WPG Blake Wheeler scored
- 3. WSH Alexander Semin stopped
- 4. WPG Bryan Little scored
- 5. WSH Mathieu Perreault stopped
Penalties (8)
- P2 12:28WPGZach Bogosian: Holding2 min
- P3 5:02WSHJeff Halpern: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:36WPGToby Enstrom: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:18WPGBryan Little: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 15:55WSHRoman Hamrlik: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:04WSHBrooks Laich: Broken stick2 min · PPG
- OT 4:42WPGDustin Byfuglien: Tripping2 min
- OT 5:00WPGTanner Glass: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Slater won the faceoff against Perreault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestMiettinen – Gagnon – Burmistrov7:59
xG 0.43–0.19 (70%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Gagnon – Kane2:08
xG 0.21–0.05 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little15:25
xG 0.38–0.43 (47%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
- Antropov – Fehr – Kane9:55
xG 0.18–0.29 (38%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien19:44
xG 0.87–0.48 (64%)attempts 28–17goals 0–0
- Oduya – Stuart12:45
xG 0.37–0.33 (52%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Bogosian16:02
xG 0.33–0.46 (41%)attempts 16–22goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Semin – Perreault11:03
xG 0.39–0.12 (77%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Laich – Aucoin – Beagle4:17
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Halpern – Ward – Hendricks17:18
xG 0.41–0.64 (39%)attempts 16–24goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Brouwer – Johansson11:26
xG 0.22–0.53 (29%)attempts 11–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Schultz11:48
xG 0.39–0.34 (54%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson18:31
xG 0.53–0.64 (45%)attempts 19–21goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Orlov18:52
xG 0.27–0.50 (35%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).