Thu, Feb 9, 2012·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Dallas Stars 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 215 | 110 | 110 | 435 |
| CBJ | 010 | 211 | 07 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:35DALJamie BennAssists: Stephane Robidas, Steve Ott · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 4:21DALAlex GoligoskiAssists: Tomas Vincour, Mike Ribeiro · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 1:09DALStephane RobidasGWGAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Alex Goligoski · Slap, 0.02 xG3–0
- P2 8:32CBJVinny ProspalPPAssists: Fedor Tyutin, Derick Brassard · Deflected, 0.16 xG3–1
- P2 12:12CBJRick NashPPAssists: Derick Brassard, Fedor Tyutin · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 19:59DALJamie BennENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.60 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:32CBJJared Boll: Boarding2 min
- P1 19:05CBJDavid Savard: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:26DALSheldon Souray: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:56DALVernon Fiddler: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:26DALPhilip Larsen: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 14:10CBJJeff Carter: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Benn – Vincour11:13
xG 0.63–0.14 (82%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Ryder – Eriksson12:49
xG 0.31–0.47 (40%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Petersen – Burish – Wandell6:32
xG 0.02–0.20 (9%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom10:41
xG 0.09–0.29 (25%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Larsen13:32
xG 0.80–0.42 (65%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Souray – Robidas15:52
xG 0.28–0.31 (48%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Daley – Grossmann14:44
xG 0.27–0.42 (39%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestProspal – Carter – Gillies11:14
xG 0.42–0.29 (59%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Pahlsson – Vermette – Dorsett9:17
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- MacKenzie – Boll – Russell3:29
xG 0.01–0.02 (42%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Umberger – Nash – Brassard12:06
xG 0.23–0.59 (28%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Moore3:20
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Johnson6:04
xG 0.46–0.37 (56%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Tyutin – Savard2:30
xG 0.07–0.04 (67%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).