Thu, Feb 9, 2012·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Calgary Flames 1, Phoenix Coyotes 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 010 | 04 | 18 | 02 | 124 |
| PHX | 112 | 010 | 09 | 14 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:43PHXTaylor PyattAssists: Rostislav Klesla, Kyle Chipchura · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P3 4:01CGYOlli JokinenAssists: Mark Giordano, Scott Hannan · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- OT 3:05PHXShane DoanPPGWGAssists: Radim Vrbata, Ray Whitney · Slap, 0.09 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
- P2 5:37CGYTJ Brodie: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:59PHXTaylor Pyatt: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:30CGYMark Giordano: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:47PHXShane Doan: Boarding2 min
- P3 2:20PHXKeith Yandle: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:20CGYLance Bouma: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:57PHXKeith Yandle: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:57PHXKeith Yandle: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:57CGYMikael Backlund: Roughing2 min
- OT 2:07CGYMikael Backlund: Tripping2 min · PPG
- OT 3:05CGYChris Butler: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Jones
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Comeau – Jones – Bouma4:33
xG 0.15–0.12 (56%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Kolanos – Backlund – Bouma4:40
xG 0.05–0.04 (53%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Cammalleri5:35
xG 0.07–0.07 (49%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Kolanos – Backlund2:54
xG 0.03–0.08 (30%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Sarich – Brodie11:06
xG 0.21–0.16 (56%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Hannan – Giordano15:18
xG 0.18–0.57 (25%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Butler17:46
xG 0.39–0.90 (30%)attempts 12–21goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Gordon – Korpikoski11:08
xG 0.68–0.19 (78%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Chipchura – Brule7:26
xG 0.23–0.15 (60%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal10:49
xG 0.31–0.26 (54%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Langkow – Torres – Boedker9:17
xG 0.02–0.09 (22%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorris – Rozsival11:22
xG 0.81–0.24 (77%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Klesla – Ekman-Larsson16:21
xG 0.48–0.10 (83%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Aucoin – Ekman-Larsson2:14
xG 0.02–0.03 (44%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).