Sat, Feb 11, 2012·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Winnipeg Jets 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 210 | 14 | 211 | 525 |
| PIT | 214 | 315 | 310 | 839 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:17WPGKyle WellwoodAssists: Toby Enstrom, Dustin Byfuglien · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 8:04WPGAlexander BurmistrovAssists: Antti Miettinen, Tim Stapleton · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
- P1 12:11PITDustin JeffreyAssists: Jordan Staal, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P1 16:42PITJames NealAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 3:12PITChris KunitzPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Marc-Andre Fleury · Snap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 9:53PITKris LetangAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Chris Kunitz · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–4
- P2 14:19WPGTim StapletonAssists: Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
- P2 17:08PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Chris Kunitz, James Neal · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–5
- P3 4:35WPGDustin ByfuglienAssists: Bryan Little, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–5
- P3 4:54PITRichard ParkGWGAssists: Brooks Orpik, Craig Adams · Tip-in, 0.04 xG4–6
- P3 7:48PITJordan StaalAssists: Pascal Dupuis, Matt Cooke · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–7
- P3 10:02WPGBryan LittleAssists: Ron Hainsey, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–7
- P3 17:16PITKris LetangPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.35 xG5–8
Penalties (4)
- P1 17:54PITKris Letang: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 2:01WPGChris Thorburn: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:33WPGToby Enstrom: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:57WPGAndrew Ladd: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Slater – Glass9:23
xG 0.54–0.30 (64%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little14:53
xG 0.70–0.65 (52%)attempts 19–9goals 2–3
- Miettinen – Stapleton – Burmistrov8:26
xG 0.16–0.12 (57%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Antropov – Wellwood – Kane13:42
xG 0.29–0.64 (31%)attempts 13–12goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bogosian16:39
xG 1.42–0.67 (68%)attempts 25–13goals 2–1
- Oduya – Stuart15:41
xG 0.24–0.34 (41%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien17:09
xG 0.35–0.82 (30%)attempts 10–19goals 2–4
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestPark – Adams – Vitale7:16
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 1–0
- Sullivan – O'Reilly – Jeffrey7:31
xG 0.36–0.43 (46%)attempts 11–11goals 0–2
- Cooke – Dupuis – Staal12:04
xG 0.27–0.43 (39%)attempts 7–11goals 1–2
- Kunitz – Malkin – Neal12:25
xG 0.75–1.04 (42%)attempts 11–15goals 3–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Niskanen12:01
xG 0.64–0.27 (70%)attempts 15–8goals 0–2
- Orpik – Letang20:00
xG 0.88–0.68 (56%)attempts 13–21goals 4–1
- Martin – Michalek18:01
xG 0.60–0.74 (45%)attempts 18–12goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).