Fri, Feb 10, 2012·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Anaheim Ducks 1, Detroit Red Wings 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 18 | 08 | 013 | 01 | 1 | 130 |
| DET | 16 | 010 | 06 | 02 | 2 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:17ANAGeorge ParrosAssists: Rod Pelley · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 18:42DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Jakub Kindl, Drew Miller · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. DET Pavel Datsyuk scored
- 2. ANA Teemu Selanne scored
- 3. DET Jiri Hudler stopped
- 4. ANA Corey Perry stopped
- 5. DET Todd Bertuzzi scored
- 6. ANA Bobby Ryan stopped
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:21DETTodd Bertuzzi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 12:42DETHenrik Zetterberg: Interference2 min
- P1 0:00DETTodd Bertuzzi: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:35ANAGeorge Parros: Interference2 min
- P2 7:31DETJonathan Ericsson: Interference2 min
- P2 8:38ANACorey Perry: Interference2 min
- P3 4:04DETValtteri Filppula: Holding2 min
- P3 7:24DETTodd Bertuzzi: Interference2 min
- P3 9:22ANAMatt Beleskey: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 15:08ANAJason Blake: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- OT 2:27DETBrad Stuart: Slashing2 min
- OT 2:56ANALubomir Visnovsky: Interference2 min
- OT 4:06ANACorey Perry: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Beleskey4:03
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ryan3:01
xG 0.10–0.02 (84%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Hagman – Parros – Pelley4:23
xG 0.09–0.03 (76%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Ryan2:34
xG 0.09–0.05 (61%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Brookbank13:33
xG 0.31–0.18 (63%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Visnovsky – Sbisa9:24
xG 0.18–0.10 (65%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Fowler12:05
xG 0.40–0.41 (49%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Abdelkader – Helm8:29
xG 0.23–0.08 (75%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Franzen11:13
xG 0.36–0.40 (48%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Holmstrom – Emmerton – Mursak4:16
xG 0.03–0.07 (26%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Hudler9:14
xG 0.27–0.38 (41%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – White13:37
xG 0.34–0.17 (67%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Kindl7:33
xG 0.22–0.16 (58%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- White – Kindl2:15
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).