Sat, Feb 11, 2012·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Los Angeles Kings 1, New York Islanders 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 012 | 112 | 011 | 00 | 135 |
| NYI | 18 | 04 | 012 | 11 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:52NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Mark Eaton, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 5:20LAKAndrei LoktionovAssists: Dustin Brown, Rob Scuderi · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–1
- OT 1:36NYIMark StreitGWGAssists: Matt Moulson, Andrew MacDonald · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–2
Penalties (4)
- P2 6:19NYIAndrew MacDonald: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:58LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:02LAKJordan Nolan: Interference2 min
- P3 7:32NYISteve Staios: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestRichards – King – Nolan12:06
xG 0.84–0.22 (79%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Williams – Brown – Kopitar14:33
xG 0.40–0.24 (63%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Hunter – Fraser – Richardson6:20
xG 0.15–0.26 (37%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Lewis – Loktionov – Clifford11:51
xG 0.30–0.74 (29%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Doughty17:39
xG 1.37–0.49 (74%)attempts 26–11goals 1–0
- Greene – Martinez11:17
xG 0.27–0.18 (60%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Johnson17:04
xG 0.27–0.91 (23%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Okposo – Tavares14:52
xG 0.92–0.35 (73%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Pandolfo – Wallace – Niederreiter4:59
xG 0.01–0.09 (12%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Rolston – Bailey – Martin8:47
xG 0.08–0.23 (26%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Nielsen – Grabner12:01
xG 0.30–0.54 (36%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaios – Streit14:35
xG 1.01–0.15 (87%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Ness17:20
xG 0.28–0.65 (30%)attempts 5–23goals 0–0
- Eaton – Jurcina12:37
xG 0.21–1.13 (16%)attempts 9–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).