Sat, Feb 11, 2012·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Rangers 5, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 210 | 17 | 29 | 526 |
| PHI | 19 | 118 | 06 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:25NYRRyan CallahanPPAssists: Marian Gaborik, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 13:03PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Andrej Meszaros, Braydon Coburn · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 16:40NYRMarian GaborikPPAssists: Brad Richards, Derek Stepan · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 6:36PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Scott Hartnell · Wrist, 0.45 xG2–2
- P2 9:15NYRRyan CallahanPPGWGAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Marian Gaborik · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 6:28NYRArtem AnisimovAssists: Derek Stepan, Marian Gaborik · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–2
- P3 11:25NYRRyan CallahanAssists: Carl Hagelin, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.28 xG5–2
Penalties (25)
- P1 4:48PHIDaniel Brière: Holding2 min
- P1 8:01PHITom Sestito: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 8:01PHITom Sestito: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:01NYRStu Bickel: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:01NYRStu Bickel: Misconduct10 min
- P1 8:01PHITom Sestito: Misconduct10 min
- P1 8:25PHIDaniel Brière: Misconduct10 min
- P1 10:25NYRMarian Gaborik: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:45PHIAndrej Meszaros: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:00NYRSteve Eminger: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:14PHIScott Hartnell: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 12:46NYRSteve Eminger: Holding2 min
- P3 2:21PHIMax Talbot: Interference2 min
- P3 7:35PHIScott Hartnell: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:41NYRBrian Boyle: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:41PHIWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:55NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:55PHIZac Rinaldo: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:55PHIZac Rinaldo: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:55PHIZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:55PHIZac Rinaldo: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:55NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:55NYRBrandon Prust: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:55PHITom Sestito: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:54NYRMarian Gaborik: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boyle won the faceoff against Brière
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Callahan – Hagelin5:33
xG 0.68–0.06 (92%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Gaborik – Anisimov – Stepan7:20
xG 0.92–0.91 (50%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
- Boyle – Dubinsky – Prust8:52
xG 0.14–0.65 (18%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh16:41
xG 0.57–0.45 (56%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
- Stralman – Del Zotto7:45
xG 0.32–0.94 (25%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
- Eminger – Staal7:21
xG 0.24–0.97 (20%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Simmonds – Schenn7:00
xG 0.26–0.04 (85%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Jagr – Hartnell – Giroux11:14
xG 0.75–0.78 (49%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Talbot – Voracek – Read2:56
xG 0.01–0.21 (6%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Sestito – Rinaldo – Couturier4:10
xG 0.03–0.27 (9%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Bourdon12:18
xG 1.22–0.60 (67%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Timonen – Coburn11:06
xG 0.63–0.07 (90%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Meszaros – Gustafsson9:23
xG 0.47–1.14 (29%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).