Sat, Feb 11, 2012·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Edmonton Oilers 4, Ottawa Senators 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 012 | 217 | 18 | 13 | 440 |
| OTT | 117 | 117 | 18 | 00 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:36OTTDaniel AlfredssonAssists: Erik Karlsson, Jason Spezza · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 14:05EDMMagnus PaajarviAssists: Ales Hemsky, Shawn Horcoff · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–1
- P2 16:23OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Jason Spezza, Bobby Butler · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–2
- P2 18:52EDMBen EagerAssists: Jeff Petry, Anton Lander · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 0:42EDMShawn HorcoffAssists: Ales Hemsky, Magnus Paajarvi · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 9:30OTTErik KarlssonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- OT 0:17EDMTaylor HallGWGAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Tom Gilbert · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:25EDMTaylor Hall: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:08OTTBrian Lee: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:21EDMTaylor Hall: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 2:50OTTNick Foligno: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Gagner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Hemsky – Paajarvi12:30
xG 0.74–0.43 (63%)attempts 11–11goals 2–1
- Eager – Petrell – Lander5:35
xG 0.13–0.20 (39%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Smyth – Belanger – Jones11:10
xG 0.50–0.58 (46%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Gagner – Eberle – Hall11:48
xG 0.19–0.72 (21%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Whitney5:50
xG 0.35–0.12 (74%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Whitney – Petry2:06
xG 0.13–0.13 (49%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Sutton – Smid2:53
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Greening – Turris11:31
xG 0.63–0.06 (91%)attempts 20–5goals 1–0
- Neil – Foligno – O'Brien7:53
xG 0.87–0.38 (70%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Daugavins – Condra – Smith5:44
xG 0.14–0.08 (64%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Neil – Foligno – Smith2:32
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Karlsson19:08
xG 2.20–0.47 (82%)attempts 31–13goals 2–0
- Lee – Cowen11:31
xG 0.58–0.36 (62%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Lee – Karlsson2:02
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).