Sat, Feb 11, 2012·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Montréal Canadiens 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 08 | 47 | 13 | 518 |
| TOR | 014 | 010 | 08 | 032 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:01MTLErik ColeGWGAssists: David Desharnais · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 6:45MTLRene BourqueAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Mathieu Darche · Snap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 15:54MTLMax PaciorettyPPAssists: P.K. Subban, David Desharnais · Snap, 0.10 xG3–0
- P2 18:54MTLLars EllerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–0
- P3 1:29MTLMathieu DarcheAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Carey Price · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 17:21MTLTomas Plekanec: Interference2 min
- P2 2:49MTLHal Gill: Holding2 min
- P2 7:37MTLMax Pacioretty: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:00TORTim Connolly: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 5:44MTLP.K. Subban: Interference2 min
- P3 16:37MTLLars Eller: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:56TORMike Brown: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDarche – Plekanec – Bourque10:49
xG 0.74–0.31 (70%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Gomez – Kostitsyn – Bourque5:05
xG 0.13–0.13 (49%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty10:45
xG 0.29–0.34 (45%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Gomez – Cole – Kostitsyn4:09
xG 0.01–0.16 (8%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Subban12:59
xG 0.44–0.21 (68%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Kaberle – Emelin4:33
xG 0.06–0.04 (62%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Emelin – Diaz4:26
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin11:56
xG 0.43–0.13 (77%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Connolly – Lombardi – Crabb9:09
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak12:26
xG 0.30–0.41 (43%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Steckel – Boyce – Brown8:26
xG 0.42–0.54 (44%)attempts 13–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gunnarsson13:48
xG 0.91–0.19 (82%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Schenn – Gardiner11:38
xG 0.49–0.13 (79%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Gunnarsson – Schenn2:41
xG 0.10–0.05 (68%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).