Sat, Feb 11, 2012·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 110 | 17 | 12 | 319 |
| MIN | 115 | 05 | 015 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:28MINDevin SetoguchiAssists: Mikko Koivu, Marek Zidlicky · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 19:04CBJR.J. UmbergerAssists: Rick Nash, Derick Brassard · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 19:39CBJR.J. UmbergerPPGWGAssists: James Wisniewski, Rick Nash · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 19:11CBJJames WisniewskiENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.49 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:37MINDarroll Powe: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:39MINDarroll Powe: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:49MINDarroll Powe: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:03CBJFedor Tyutin: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:12CBJSamuel Pahlsson: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:12MINErik Christensen: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:47MINMarek Zidlicky: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Carter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Russell – Johansen2:43
xG 0.29–0.10 (74%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Umberger – Nash – Brassard11:40
xG 0.48–0.36 (57%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
- Prospal – Carter – Johansen5:34
xG 0.10–0.04 (72%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Prospal – Carter – Gillies5:43
xG 0.23–0.20 (53%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Johnson – Clitsome2:25
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Clitsome – Savard8:45
xG 0.14–0.22 (39%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Johnson – Wisniewski13:04
xG 0.13–0.54 (19%)attempts 4–18goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHeatley – Koivu – Setoguchi16:34
xG 0.83–0.25 (77%)attempts 21–4goals 1–0
- Cullen – Christensen – Clutterbuck5:42
xG 0.16–0.01 (92%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Cullen – Christensen – McMillan3:34
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Peters – Kassian – McMillan3:23
xG 0.10–0.31 (25%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZanon – Zidlicky14:52
xG 0.64–0.10 (87%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Lundin – Prosser12:31
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Schultz – Spurgeon15:58
xG 0.79–0.71 (53%)attempts 21–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).