Sat, Feb 11, 2012·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vancouver Canucks 2, Calgary Flames 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 06 | 19 | 112 | 04 | 1 | 231 |
| CGY | 17 | 15 | 06 | 00 | 2 | 318 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:23CGYMichael CammalleriAssists: Blake Comeau, Scott Hannan · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 2:41CGYRoman HorakAssists: Lance Bouma, Cory Sarich · Snap, 0.21 xG0–2
- P2 17:55VANCody HodgsonAssists: Mike Duco, Alexander Edler · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 8:04VANDavid BoothAssists: Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CGY Olli Jokinen scored
- 2. VAN Alexander Edler stopped
- 3. CGY Alex Tanguay stopped
- 4. VAN Alexandre Burrows scored
- 5. CGY Jarome Iginla scored
- 6. VAN Mason Raymond stopped
Penalties (14)
- P1 6:33CGYLance Bouma: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:33VANMike Duco: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:46VANAlexander Edler: Interference2 min
- P1 17:57VANAndrew Alberts: Boarding2 min
- P2 4:30VANAndrew Alberts: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:30CGYMikael Backlund: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:30VANAndrew Alberts: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:30VANAndrew Alberts: Charging2 min
- P2 11:20CGYAlex Tanguay: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:30VANAndrew Alberts: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:30CGYTim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:50CGYBlake Comeau: Slashing2 min
- OT 0:55CGYJay Bouwmeester: Holding2 min
- OT 1:03VANDaniel Sedin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Booth – Raymond4:54
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 1–0
- Malhotra – Hansen – Raymond2:37
xG 0.05–0.01 (85%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Bitz – Hansen2:29
xG 0.02–0.01 (65%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Bitz5:33
xG 0.09–0.10 (47%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Bieksa14:08
xG 0.40–0.09 (82%)attempts 16–3goals 1–0
- Rome – Edler2:21
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Alberts – Rome7:19
xG 0.12–0.12 (50%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Comeau – Backlund6:07
xG 0.52–0.11 (82%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Kolanos – Bouma – Horak2:11
xG 0.21–0.04 (85%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Stajan7:02
xG 0.19–0.05 (78%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Comeau – Horak4:52
xG 0.03–0.06 (34%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Giordano15:09
xG 0.60–0.35 (63%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
- Sarich – Brodie10:31
xG 0.24–0.21 (54%)attempts 4–8goals 1–1
- Bouwmeester – Butler17:07
xG 0.41–0.46 (47%)attempts 11–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).