Sun, Feb 12, 2012·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 18 | 211 | 010 | 329 |
| DET | 18 | 213 | 14 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:08DETNiklas KronwallPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Todd Bertuzzi · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 16:42PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Daniel Brière · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 5:22PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Braydon Coburn · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 8:27DETPavel DatsyukPPAssists: Johan Franzen, Ian White · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 16:19PHIMax TalbotAssists: Scott Hartnell, Matt Read · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–2
- P2 18:21DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Brad Stuart · Slap, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 0:52DETJohan FranzenGWGAssists: Nicklas Lidstrom, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:44PHIBrayden Schenn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:02DETJiri Hudler: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 13:32PHIZac Rinaldo: Charging2 min
- P1 18:42PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:42DETJohan Franzen: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:48PHIWayne Simmonds: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:29PHIMarc-Andre Bourdon: Boarding2 min
- P3 6:43DETJiri Hudler: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:17PHIKimmo Timonen: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Talbot won the faceoff against Helm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Hartnell – Giroux12:07
xG 1.12–0.38 (75%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Talbot – Wellwood – Read7:58
xG 0.23–0.10 (71%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Brière – Simmonds – Schenn11:55
xG 0.52–0.58 (47%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
- Sestito – Rinaldo – Couturier6:07
xG 0.02–0.34 (6%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Bourdon12:00
xG 0.73–0.19 (80%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Timonen – Coburn10:14
xG 0.93–0.53 (64%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Timonen – Meszaros2:22
xG 0.15–0.07 (68%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHolmstrom – Emmerton – Mursak4:02
xG 0.29–0.08 (78%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Miller – Abdelkader – Helm9:58
xG 0.37–0.57 (39%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Franzen10:57
xG 0.45–0.79 (36%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Hudler11:05
xG 0.27–0.86 (24%)attempts 8–15goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Kronwall12:21
xG 0.72–0.39 (65%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Stuart – Ericsson2:27
xG 0.03–0.11 (20%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Kindl11:54
xG 0.31–0.40 (44%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).