Sun, Feb 12, 2012·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Los Angeles Kings 4, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 15 | 14 | 27 | 416 |
| DAL | 010 | 18 | 110 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:54LAKDwight KingAssists: Justin Williams, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 8:21LAKAndrei LoktionovPPAssists: Jack Johnson, Anze Kopitar · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 13:22DALLoui ErikssonAssists: Alex Goligoski, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–1
- P3 4:37DALMichael RyderAssists: Loui Eriksson, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 11:29LAKJordan NolanGWGAssists: Mike Richards, Dwight King · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 19:57LAKJustin WilliamsENUnassisted · Slap, 0.66 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:37LAKDrew Doughty: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:14LAKMatt Greene: Interference2 min
- P1 14:14DALAdam Burish: Diving2 min
- P2 1:57LAKJordan Nolan: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:44DALSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:44LAKBrad Richardson: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:13DALStephane Robidas: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 10:35DALToby Petersen: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:14LAKWillie Mitchell: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Benn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestFraser – Richardson – Westgarth3:52
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Richards – King – Nolan10:57
xG 0.23–0.20 (54%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Williams – Brown – Kopitar10:39
xG 0.34–0.32 (51%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Lewis – Loktionov – Clifford9:34
xG 0.00–0.87 (0%)attempts 0–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Mitchell – Greene2:16
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Johnson14:47
xG 0.36–0.41 (47%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Greene – Martinez8:46
xG 0.01–0.28 (5%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Ryder – Eriksson11:46
xG 1.45–0.15 (91%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom10:39
xG 0.40–0.07 (85%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Petersen – Burish – Wandell4:24
xG 0.14–0.01 (93%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Ott – Benn – Vincour12:58
xG 0.10–0.49 (17%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Goligoski16:08
xG 1.09–0.11 (91%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Daley – Grossmann10:12
xG 0.71–0.34 (67%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Fistric – Larsen10:43
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).