Tue, Feb 14, 2012·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
New Jersey Devils 4, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 18 | 011 | 312 | 431 |
| BUF | 08 | 112 | 010 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:24NJDIlya KovalchukPPAssists: Patrik Elias, David Clarkson · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 17:19BUFJason PominvilleUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 1:44NJDPetr SykoraPPGWGAssists: Adam Henrique, Ilya Kovalchuk · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 9:47NJDIlya KovalchukAssists: Adam Henrique, Mark Fayne · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 19:51NJDIlya KovalchukENAssists: Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.72 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:13BUFRobyn Regehr: Holding2 min
- P1 18:42BUFThomas Vanek: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:18NJDBryce Salvador: Delaying game2 min
- P2 5:24BUFDerek Roy: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:48BUFJordan Leopold: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:47BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00BUFMike Weber: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:23NJDAndy Greene: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:29BUFDerek Roy: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zubrus won the faceoff against Ennis
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Parise – Henrique11:31
xG 0.57–0.18 (76%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Zubrus – Ponikarovsky – Bernier10:46
xG 0.36–0.11 (76%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Veilleux – Janssen – Josefson2:52
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Sykora – Elias – Clarkson8:54
xG 0.04–0.31 (12%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalvador – Volchenkov16:30
xG 0.51–0.31 (62%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Foster – Taormina7:47
xG 0.19–0.29 (39%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Fayne – Greene14:30
xG 0.17–0.82 (17%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Ennis – Kassian3:14
xG 0.38–0.05 (88%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Roy – Pominville – Vanek10:25
xG 0.42–0.28 (59%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Stafford – Gerbe – Ennis8:34
xG 0.10–0.18 (36%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Kaleta – Leino6:06
xG 0.11–0.22 (34%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Weber11:42
xG 0.68–0.22 (76%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Regehr – Leopold9:22
xG 0.27–0.17 (62%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Sekera – Myers15:00
xG 0.33–0.41 (44%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).