Tue, Feb 14, 2012·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 111 | 010 | 111 | 232 |
| NSH | 15 | 111 | 13 | 319 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:20NSHRyan SuterAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn, Mike Fisher · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 19:06CHIBryan BickellAssists: Jamal Mayers, Andrew Shaw · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 17:21NSHNick SpalingAssists: Ryan Ellis, Jordin Tootoo · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 6:05CHIMarian HossaAssists: Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 14:18NSHRyan EllisGWGAssists: David Legwand · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:18CHIDave Bolland: Hooking2 min
- P1 3:51NSHMike Fisher: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:39CHIJonathan Toews: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 9:03NSHMartin Erat: Holding2 min
- P2 2:13CHIMarcus Kruger: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:50NSHRoman Josi: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Toews – Kane14:55
xG 1.35–0.72 (65%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
- Mayers – Scott – Shaw3:35
xG 0.14–0.11 (56%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Bolland – Bickell – Stalberg6:30
xG 0.34–0.32 (52%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Brunette – Hossa – Kruger10:44
xG 0.13–0.23 (37%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Leddy18:06
xG 1.02–0.57 (64%)attempts 19–14goals 0–2
- Keith – Seabrook3:15
xG 0.31–0.16 (65%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Keith – Olsen17:24
xG 0.81–0.68 (54%)attempts 19–10goals 1–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Smith – Bourque9:11
xG 0.55–0.08 (87%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Smithson – Yip – Halischuk2:09
xG 0.14–0.19 (42%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Yip – Halischuk – Spaling2:04
xG 0.04–0.10 (30%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Spaling – Wilson7:51
xG 0.10–0.23 (30%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Josi13:39
xG 0.41–0.16 (71%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Bouillon – Ellis11:27
xG 0.49–0.64 (43%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
- Suter – Weber18:43
xG 0.89–1.25 (42%)attempts 16–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).