Tue, Feb 14, 2012·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
New York Islanders 3, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 010 | 17 | 28 | 325 |
| WPG | 116 | 010 | 012 | 138 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:50WPGChris ThorburnAssists: Jim Slater, Tanner Glass · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 3:55NYIMatt MoulsonPPAssists: John Tavares · Slap, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 1:36NYIPA ParenteauGWGAssists: Milan Jurcina, Brian Rolston · Deflected, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 19:07NYIMatt MartinENAssists: PA Parenteau, Jay Pandolfo · Snap, 0.70 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P2 3:32WPGBlake Wheeler: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:26WPGZach Bogosian: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:26NYIMichael Grabner: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:17WPGNik Antropov: Interference2 min
- P2 14:17NYIPA Parenteau: Diving2 min
- P2 18:03NYIJohn Tavares: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:50NYIBrian Rolston: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:26NYIPA Parenteau: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Slater won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestReasoner – Martin – Niederreiter2:17
xG 0.13–0.03 (81%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Pandolfo – Reasoner – Niederreiter4:44
xG 0.25–0.24 (51%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Nielsen – Grabner10:39
xG 0.18–0.28 (39%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
- Moulson – Okposo – Tavares14:26
xG 0.53–0.92 (36%)attempts 16–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Streit – MacDonald3:10
xG 0.13–0.17 (44%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Ness12:58
xG 0.31–0.53 (37%)attempts 7–20goals 0–0
- Eaton – Jurcina11:59
xG 0.29–0.68 (30%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWellwood – Kane – Burmistrov9:54
xG 0.55–0.19 (74%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little16:38
xG 1.02–0.82 (56%)attempts 23–13goals 0–1
- Antropov – Miettinen – Stapleton5:21
xG 0.32–0.13 (71%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Glass7:12
xG 0.19–0.35 (35%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien19:02
xG 1.18–0.68 (63%)attempts 24–16goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Stuart12:12
xG 0.50–0.35 (59%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Oduya – Bogosian13:07
xG 0.36–0.26 (58%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).