Wed, Feb 15, 2012·Centre Bell, Montreal
Boston Bruins 4, Montréal Canadiens 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 112 | 213 | 02 | 07 | 1 | 434 |
| MTL | 05 | 111 | 210 | 03 | 0 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:09BOSAndrew FerenceAssists: Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 1:39MTLMathieu DarcheSHAssists: P.K. Subban · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 5:07BOSBenoit PouliotAssists: Chris Kelly, Rich Peverley · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 14:33BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 3:34MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: David Desharnais, Erik Cole · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 11:12MTLErik ColeUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. MTL Rene Bourque stopped
- 2. BOS David Krejci stopped
- 3. MTL Max Pacioretty stopped
- 4. BOS Tyler Seguin scored
- 5. MTL Lars Eller stopped
Penalties (13)
- P1 9:11BOSDennis Seidenberg: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:15BOSAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:15MTLRyan White: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:16BOSDennis Seidenberg: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:43MTLMax Pacioretty: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 17:59MTLLars Eller: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 5:27MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Interference2 min
- P2 11:52BOSDaniel Paille: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 11:52MTLLouis Leblanc: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 12:39MTLErik Cole: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00BOSBrad Marchand: Clipping2 min
- P3 5:00BOSJohnny Boychuk: Interference2 min
- P3 18:37MTLTomas Plekanec: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Paille – Caron2:47
xG 0.13–0.04 (78%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Krejci – Peverley – Lucic8:35
xG 0.16–0.15 (52%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Kelly – Pouliot – Caron5:04
xG 0.05–0.05 (54%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille4:39
xG 0.04–0.06 (37%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – McQuaid8:41
xG 0.17–0.11 (60%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – Boychuk2:12
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Chara – McQuaid2:17
xG 0.03–0.04 (48%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestCole – Desharnais – Pacioretty11:43
xG 0.23–0.04 (84%)attempts 11–5goals 2–0
- Bourque – Eller – Leblanc4:06
xG 0.07–0.05 (56%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Darche – Plekanec – Bourque10:47
xG 0.20–0.25 (45%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Gomez – Kostitsyn – White7:40
xG 0.03–0.16 (17%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Campoli2:17
xG 0.14–0.00 (99%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kaberle – Emelin3:41
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Gorges – Subban11:43
xG 0.22–0.12 (64%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).