Wed, Feb 15, 2012·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Ottawa Senators 6, Florida Panthers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 19 | 310 | 212 | 631 |
| FLA | 114 | 017 | 113 | 244 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:35OTTJim O'BrienAssists: Nick Foligno, Brian Lee · Wrap-around, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 11:47FLAShawn MatthiasAssists: Mike Weaver · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 5:18OTTKaspars DaugavinsAssists: Brian Lee, Erik Condra · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 7:24OTTBobby ButlerGWGAssists: Milan Michalek, Jason Spezza · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 14:06OTTDaniel AlfredssonSHAssists: Kaspars Daugavins · Backhand, 0.06 xG4–1
- P3 1:24OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Erik Karlsson, Jason Spezza · Tip-in, 0.09 xG5–1
- P3 4:25FLASean BergenheimPPAssists: Brian Campbell, Tomas Fleischmann · Tip-in, 0.10 xG5–2
- P3 14:54OTTFilip KubaPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Daniel Alfredsson · Slap, 0.05 xG6–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 15:31OTTFilip Kuba: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:14FLAMatt Bradley: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:14OTTZack Smith: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:41OTTChris Phillips: Interference2 min
- P2 13:30OTTSergei Gonchar: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:00FLAStephen Weiss: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:58OTTDaniel Alfredsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 10:51OTTColin Greening: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:54FLAJack Skille: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 15:31OTTZack Smith: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:31FLATyson Strachan: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:31FLAJack Skille: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:36FLAMatt Bradley: Abusive language2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goc won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Foligno – O'Brien8:31
xG 0.29–0.12 (70%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
- Daugavins – Condra – Smith7:11
xG 0.34–0.19 (65%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Butler10:01
xG 0.58–0.46 (56%)attempts 14–12goals 2–0
- Alfredsson – Greening – Turris11:11
xG 0.12–0.67 (15%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLee – Cowen10:50
xG 0.64–0.36 (64%)attempts 15–12goals 2–0
- Kuba – Karlsson12:53
xG 0.41–0.28 (59%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Gonchar – Phillips13:45
xG 0.23–0.79 (22%)attempts 9–20goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg10:05
xG 0.65–0.40 (62%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Santorelli – Matthias8:44
xG 0.17–0.15 (53%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Goc – Bergenheim9:14
xG 0.27–0.31 (47%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Bradley – Madden – Skille8:01
xG 0.13–0.47 (22%)attempts 5–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Gudbranson13:04
xG 0.90–0.41 (68%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Campbell – Strachan3:22
xG 0.04–0.09 (31%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Weaver – Ellerby10:37
xG 0.26–0.44 (37%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).