Wed, Feb 15, 2012·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Edmonton Oilers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 214 | 03 | 18 | 11 | 426 |
| EDM | 110 | 113 | 18 | 01 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:40TORJoffrey LupulAssists: Phil Kessel, Keith Aulie · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 1:38TORMatthew LombardiAssists: Cody Franson · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 2:32EDMBen EagerAssists: Lennart Petrell · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 8:15EDMTaylor HallAssists: Sam Gagner, Andy Sutton · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 6:46TORJake GardinerPPAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Cody Franson · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 15:56EDMJordan EberleAssists: Ryan Whitney · Snap, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 1:39TORTim ConnollyGWGAssists: Joffrey Lupul · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:49TORMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:49EDMBen Eager: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:58EDMMagnus Paajarvi: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 6:36EDMRyan Jones: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 10:06EDMAndy Sutton: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:08TORJoffrey Lupul: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:54TORDarryl Boyce: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Belanger won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestConnolly – Lombardi – Boyce2:02
xG 0.18–0.03 (86%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Connolly – Boyce – Grabovski3:21
xG 0.03–0.06 (29%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin3:46
xG 0.03–0.11 (21%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Connolly – MacArthur – Grabovski7:15
xG 0.37–0.51 (42%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Franson – Gardiner2:18
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Liles – Gardiner3:17
xG 0.10–0.23 (30%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Komisarek – Gardiner12:26
xG 0.17–0.43 (28%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Hemsky – Paajarvi10:53
xG 0.74–0.30 (71%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Smyth – Belanger – Jones12:11
xG 0.63–0.30 (68%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Gagner – Eberle – Hall14:09
xG 0.84–0.52 (62%)attempts 18–14goals 2–1
- Eager – Petrell – Lander5:02
xG 0.12–0.16 (43%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Whitney15:55
xG 0.96–0.34 (74%)attempts 19–13goals 2–0
- Smid – Petry17:03
xG 0.81–0.40 (67%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Sutton – Barker15:07
xG 0.82–0.62 (57%)attempts 20–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).