Wed, Feb 15, 2012·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Colorado Avalanche 1, Vancouver Canucks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 07 | 113 | 010 | 130 |
| VAN | 110 | 011 | 210 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:13VANDavid BoothAssists: Mason Raymond, Kevin Bieksa · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 10:20COLErik JohnsonAssists: Milan Hejduk, David Jones · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–1
- P3 13:31VANJannik HansenGWGAssists: Cody Hodgson, Chris Higgins · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 18:56VANAlexandre BurrowsENAssists: Chris Higgins, Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.69 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:54COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:54VANByron Bitz: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:40VANDan Hamhuis: Interference2 min
- P2 16:42VANAlexandre Burrows: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 17:14COLGabriel Landeskog: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – O'Reilly – Landeskog9:48
xG 0.12–0.04 (74%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- McClement – Porter – Winnik3:05
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Kobasew – McClement – Porter4:27
xG 0.08–0.12 (41%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Jones – Stastny13:02
xG 0.60–0.75 (44%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Barrie13:18
xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Quincey – Johnson16:51
xG 0.56–0.50 (53%)attempts 18–15goals 1–1
- O'Byrne – Hejda16:31
xG 0.59–0.72 (45%)attempts 14–20goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows14:53
xG 1.04–0.30 (78%)attempts 23–7goals 0–0
- Kesler – Booth – Raymond11:53
xG 0.49–0.33 (60%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
- Higgins – Hansen – Hodgson3:35
xG 0.04–0.01 (82%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Malhotra – Lapierre – Bitz3:22
xG 0.05–0.03 (63%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Bieksa17:33
xG 0.94–0.37 (72%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- Salo – Edler15:33
xG 0.61–0.62 (49%)attempts 19–15goals 1–1
- Salo – Alberts2:58
xG 0.13–0.15 (47%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).