Thu, Feb 16, 2012·Madison Square Garden, New York
Chicago Blackhawks 4, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 410 | 09 | 03 | 422 |
| NYR | 05 | 17 | 112 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:05CHIJonathan ToewsUnassisted · Snap, 0.41 xG1–0
- P1 2:07CHINick LeddyAssists: Marian Hossa, Brent Seabrook · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P1 4:00CHIPatrick SharpGWGAssists: Jonathan Toews · Snap, 0.14 xG3–0
- P1 9:38CHIMarian HossaAssists: Patrick Kane, Brent Seabrook · Snap, 0.15 xG4–0
- P2 3:04NYRMarc StaalAssists: Steve Eminger, Mike Rupp · Slap, 0.03 xG4–1
- P3 15:15NYRCarl HagelinAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:05NYRDan Girardi: Penalty shot covering puck in crease0 min
- P1 5:18CHIJohn Scott: Boarding2 min
- P1 5:18CHIJohn Scott: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:18CHIAndrew Shaw: Holding2 min
- P1 5:18NYRMike Rupp: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:33CHISean O'Donnell: Interference2 min
- P2 5:34CHIViktor Stalberg: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 8:06CHIJonathan Toews: Interference2 min
- P2 8:33NYRBrad Richards: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 9:21NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Elbowing2 min
- P2 9:21NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:45CHIAndrew Brunette: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 5:47CHISean O'Donnell: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boyle won the faceoff against Bolland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Toews – Kane8:55
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Bolland – Bickell – Stalberg6:57
xG 0.03–0.11 (21%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Brunette – Hossa – Kruger9:23
xG 0.28–0.76 (27%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook2:37
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Leddy15:05
xG 0.51–0.54 (49%)attempts 12–10goals 2–1
- O'Donnell – Lepisto6:47
xG 0.03–0.37 (7%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Callahan – Hagelin8:20
xG 0.67–0.26 (72%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Boyle – Dubinsky – Prust7:06
xG 0.39–0.14 (73%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Boyle – Prust – Hagelin2:24
xG 0.07–0.15 (34%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Anisimov – Stepan8:09
xG 0.12–0.34 (26%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Del Zotto9:43
xG 0.76–0.28 (73%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Staal – Del Zotto2:20
xG 0.04–0.07 (36%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Eminger – Staal7:05
xG 0.01–0.07 (7%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).