Thu, Feb 16, 2012·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
San Jose Sharks 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 6 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 117 | 320 | 18 | 05 | 550 |
| TBL | 213 | 14 | 27 | 11 | 625 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:16SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 9:30TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Brendan Mikkelson, Steve Downie · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 19:35TBLTeddy PurcellPPAssists: Brendan Mikkelson, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
- P2 1:44SJSMichal HandzusAssists: Jamie McGinn, Torrey Mitchell · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 14:08TBLSteve DownieAssists: Eric Brewer, Victor Hedman · Slap, 0.18 xG2–3
- P2 14:37SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicAssists: Tommy Wingels, Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- P2 15:44SJSColin WhiteAssists: Jamie McGinn, Torrey Mitchell · Wrist, 0.29 xG4–3
- P3 2:44TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Victor Hedman, Ryan Malone · Snap, 0.08 xG4–4
- P3 8:01TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–5
- P3 14:50SJSTommy WingelsAssists: Logan Couture, Dan Boyle · Snap, 0.06 xG5–5
- OT 4:27TBLMartin St. LouisGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:26TBLVictor Hedman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 11:20TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:26SJSRyane Clowe: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 6:34TBLTom Pyatt: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHandzus – Mitchell – McGinn10:57
xG 1.22–0.49 (72%)attempts 14–10goals 2–2
- Clowe – Couture – Wingels15:38
xG 0.80–0.24 (77%)attempts 21–6goals 2–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Pavelski14:52
xG 0.48–0.14 (78%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Winchester – Desjardins – McCarthy3:21
xG 0.07–0.45 (14%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Vlasic3:37
xG 0.67–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Burns – Braun6:38
xG 0.58–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Boyle – Vlasic8:20
xG 0.76–0.55 (58%)attempts 11–5goals 2–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Pyatt – Purcell3:57
xG 0.16–0.06 (73%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- St. Louis – Downie – Stamkos3:02
xG 0.08–0.06 (60%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Shannon2:04
xG 0.09–0.19 (33%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Stamkos2:31
xG 0.00–0.14 (2%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Hedman22:01
xG 0.96–0.71 (58%)attempts 19–15goals 2–0
- Gervais – Mikkelson14:01
xG 0.41–0.64 (39%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
- Clark – Gilroy13:58
xG 0.13–1.12 (10%)attempts 5–14goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).