Thu, Feb 16, 2012·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
New York Islanders 1, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 110 | 07 | 010 | 127 |
| STL | 211 | 38 | 07 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:59NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Michael Grabner, Andrew MacDonald · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 14:40STLJason ArnottAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, Roman Polak · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 17:12STLKevin ShattenkirkPPGWGAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, T.J. Oshie · Slap, 0.36 xG1–2
- P2 2:53STLAndy McDonaldAssists: Jamie Langenbrunner, Patrik Berglund · Backhand, 0.30 xG1–3
- P2 8:52STLDavid PerronPPAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, T.J. Oshie · Slap, 0.16 xG1–4
- P2 14:53STLT.J. OshieAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Kent Huskins · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 16:45NYIFrans Nielsen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 19:44STLKevin Shattenkirk: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:56NYIAaron Ness: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:17STLRoman Polak: Interference2 min
- P3 5:50STLKevin Shattenkirk: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 8:40STLKris Russell: Holding2 min
- P3 12:08NYIJohn Tavares: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:56STLPatrik Berglund: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestRolston – Bailey – Martin7:02
xG 0.34–0.17 (66%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Moulson – Okposo – Tavares11:47
xG 0.37–0.30 (56%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Parenteau – Nielsen – Grabner8:11
xG 0.21–0.31 (41%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Pandolfo – Reasoner – Niederreiter7:55
xG 0.20–0.42 (33%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Ness10:50
xG 0.53–0.33 (62%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Eaton – Jurcina8:43
xG 0.39–0.50 (44%)attempts 13–8goals 0–2
- Streit – Wishart12:02
xG 0.14–0.27 (34%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLangenbrunner – McDonald – Berglund11:15
xG 0.72–0.30 (70%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Backes – Oshie – Perron10:37
xG 0.30–0.14 (68%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Arnott – Sobotka – Stewart6:56
xG 0.42–0.30 (58%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Nichol – Crombeen – Porter6:06
xG 0.10–0.08 (56%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Russell14:47
xG 0.65–0.21 (76%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk8:59
xG 0.31–0.30 (51%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Huskins – Pietrangelo13:36
xG 0.59–0.59 (50%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).