Thu, Feb 16, 2012·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Winnipeg Jets 4, Minnesota Wild 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 18 | 111 | 16 | 02 | 2 | 427 |
| MIN | 16 | 13 | 114 | 02 | 1 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:50MINDevin SetoguchiAssists: Mikko Koivu, Dany Heatley · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 18:47WPGEvander KaneAssists: Blake Wheeler, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 3:00WPGEvander KaneAssists: Kyle Wellwood, Alexander Burmistrov · Deflected, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 12:15MINDevin SetoguchiPPAssists: Nate Prosser, Marco Scandella · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 1:03MINMikko KoivuAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Devin Setoguchi · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–3
- P3 3:03WPGAlexander BurmistrovAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. MIN Matt Cullen stopped
- 2. WPG Blake Wheeler scored
- 3. MIN Mikko Koivu stopped
- 4. WPG Kyle Wellwood stopped
- 5. MIN Erik Christensen scored
- 6. WPG Bryan Little stopped
- 7. MIN Dany Heatley stopped
- 8. WPG Evander Kane scored
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:25MINMikko Koivu: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:17WPGChris Thorburn: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:32WPGTim Stapleton: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:08MINWarren Peters: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 13:08WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:41WPGTim Stapleton: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 6:15MINMike Lundin: Interference2 min
- P3 8:48MINCal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:48WPGJim Slater: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:48WPGTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:48MINDarroll Powe: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:48MINCal Clutterbuck: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWellwood – Kane – Burmistrov10:04
xG 0.46–0.13 (78%)attempts 16–4goals 2–1
- Antropov – Miettinen – Stapleton5:54
xG 0.32–0.05 (87%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little11:53
xG 0.12–0.12 (49%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Glass7:33
xG 0.02–0.83 (2%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Oduya15:04
xG 0.41–0.16 (72%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien16:33
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Stuart – Jones9:02
xG 0.32–0.26 (55%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHeatley – Koivu – Setoguchi13:33
xG 1.11–0.28 (80%)attempts 17–8goals 2–1
- Peters – Kassian – Powe4:00
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Cullen – Brodziak – Johnson11:24
xG 0.22–0.24 (48%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Christensen – Clutterbuck – Almond6:18
xG 0.07–0.50 (12%)attempts 3–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Spurgeon13:31
xG 1.11–0.18 (86%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Zanon – Lundin6:23
xG 0.22–0.07 (77%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Zanon – Spurgeon2:38
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).