Thu, Feb 16, 2012·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Calgary Flames 2, Dallas Stars 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 19 | 05 | 113 | 00 | 227 |
| DAL | 19 | 112 | 010 | 11 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:42DALAdam BurishAssists: Jake Dowell, Tom Wandell · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 19:07CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Alex Tanguay, Olli Jokinen · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 17:43DALSteve OttPPAssists: Mike Ribeiro · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 14:57CGYMichael CammalleriAssists: Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- OT 2:01DALMike RibeiroGWGAssists: Michael Ryder, Trevor Daley · Slap, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P2 9:44DALMark Fistric: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:44CGYTim Jackman: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:44CGYTim Jackman: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:44DALMark Fistric: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:11DALMike Ribeiro: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:04CGYOlli Jokinen: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 10:33DALTrevor Daley: Delaying game2 min
- P3 12:47DALSteve Ott: Charging2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKolanos – Bouma – Horak3:19
xG 0.38–0.31 (55%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Stajan2:18
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Jackman – Stajan – Byron5:49
xG 0.10–0.12 (46%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Cammalleri – Comeau10:20
xG 0.12–0.38 (24%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Butler21:32
xG 0.53–0.41 (56%)attempts 16–26goals 1–0
- Hannan – Giordano17:09
xG 0.00–0.30 (0%)attempts 2–20goals 0–0
- Sarich – Brodie10:39
xG 0.52–0.89 (37%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Burish – Wandell4:57
xG 0.22–0.06 (79%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Burish – Dowell – Wandell4:35
xG 0.46–0.32 (59%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Ryder – Eriksson13:40
xG 0.37–0.24 (61%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom11:08
xG 0.13–0.03 (80%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Goligoski17:12
xG 0.63–0.24 (73%)attempts 21–8goals 0–1
- Daley – Fistric17:03
xG 0.65–0.48 (57%)attempts 23–16goals 1–0
- Pardy – Larsen13:44
xG 0.13–0.24 (34%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).