Fri, Feb 17, 2012·Prudential Center, Newark
Anaheim Ducks 2, New Jersey Devils 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 011 | 112 | 113 | 02 | 1 | 238 |
| NJD | 06 | 29 | 09 | 03 | 2 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:25NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Zach Parise · Snap, 0.30 xG0–1
- P2 10:56NJDAlexei PonikarovskyAssists: Dainius Zubrus, Matt Taormina · Snap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 16:08ANACorey PerryAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Jason Blake · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–2
- P3 17:47ANASheldon BrookbankAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Nick Bonino · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NJD Ilya Kovalchuk scored
- 2. ANA Teemu Selanne scored
- 3. NJD Zach Parise stopped
- 4. ANA Corey Perry stopped
- 5. NJD Patrik Elias scored
- 6. ANA Ryan Getzlaf stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:16NJDEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:16ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:01NJDKurtis Foster: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 1:48NJDAnton Volchenkov: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:47NJDPetr Sykora: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:29ANAJason Blake: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Zubrus
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestBlake – Getzlaf – Perry11:11
xG 0.93–0.42 (69%)attempts 11–4goals 1–1
- Hagman – Parros – Pelley5:02
xG 0.51–0.03 (94%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Beleskey – Bonino14:21
xG 0.44–0.40 (52%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
- Selanne – Koivu – Hagman2:15
xG 0.03–0.04 (40%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Brookbank14:22
xG 0.73–0.08 (90%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Fowler14:19
xG 0.75–0.56 (57%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Visnovsky – Sbisa15:50
xG 0.42–0.42 (50%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Kovalchuk – Parise – Henrique13:29
xG 0.55–0.51 (52%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Boulton – Palmieri – Josefson5:14
xG 0.13–0.22 (37%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Sykora – Elias – Clarkson13:23
xG 0.21–0.40 (35%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Zubrus – Ponikarovsky – Bernier11:28
xG 0.21–0.63 (25%)attempts 5–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSalvador – Volchenkov18:40
xG 0.46–0.34 (58%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Foster – Taormina12:48
xG 0.31–0.38 (45%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Fayne – Greene15:55
xG 0.59–0.82 (42%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).