Fri, Feb 17, 2012·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Montréal Canadiens 4, Buffalo Sabres 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 29 | 14 | 06 | 00 | 2 | 419 |
| BUF | 211 | 07 | 19 | 03 | 0 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:16BUFRobyn RegehrAssists: Paul Gaustad, Nathan Gerbe · Snap, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 11:26MTLTomas KaberleAssists: David Desharnais, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 15:43BUFTyler MyersAssists: Ville Leino, Derek Roy · Slap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P1 19:46MTLScott GomezPPAssists: Yannick Weber, Tomas Plekanec · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 11:28MTLChris CampoliAssists: Ryan White · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 11:55BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Ville Leino, Drew Stafford · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. BUF Brad Boyes stopped
- 2. MTL Max Pacioretty scored
- 3. BUF Jason Pominville stopped
- 4. MTL David Desharnais scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:25BUFThomas Vanek: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:47BUFNathan Gerbe: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:34MTLYannick Weber: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:00BUFMike Weber: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:00MTLScott Gomez: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:05MTLScott Gomez: Hooking2 min
- OT 4:01MTLMax Pacioretty: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Darche – Eller – Leblanc3:51
xG 0.14–0.16 (47%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Gomez – Kostitsyn – White11:13
xG 0.19–0.44 (30%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
- Darche – Plekanec – Bourque11:22
xG 0.01–0.27 (4%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty13:25
xG 0.25–0.67 (27%)attempts 5–14goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Subban15:56
xG 0.34–0.13 (72%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Campoli – Weber3:58
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Emelin – Subban2:31
xG 0.01–0.07 (15%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGaustad – Kaleta – Gerbe9:30
xG 0.51–0.05 (91%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Ellis – Vanek – Ennis4:25
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Stafford – Leino – Ennis3:16
xG 0.16–0.01 (93%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Boyes – Stafford – Kassian4:24
xG 0.18–0.08 (70%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Sekera12:44
xG 0.62–0.16 (79%)attempts 17–4goals 1–1
- Ehrhoff – Weber16:31
xG 0.39–0.30 (56%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Leopold – Myers15:57
xG 0.20–0.29 (41%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).