Fri, Feb 17, 2012·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Boston Bruins 2, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 013 | 18 | 112 | 233 |
| WPG | 04 | 29 | 212 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:59WPGAlexander BurmistrovAssists: Mark Stuart, Kyle Wellwood · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 6:10BOSJordan CaronAssists: Chris Kelly · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 15:50WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 0:49BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Tyler Seguin, Milan Lucic · Snap, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 4:16WPGBryan LittleGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler, Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 6:20WPGBryan LittleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P2 13:20WPGEvander Kane: Elbowing2 min
- P3 1:43WPGBryan Little: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:38BOSJosh Hennessy: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:38WPGMark Stuart: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:33BOSChris Kelly: Charging2 min
- P3 13:18BOSDavid Krejci: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Slater
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Seguin11:38
xG 0.38–0.20 (66%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Krejci – Pouliot – Lucic11:56
xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 11–10goals 0–2
- Thornton – Campbell – Hennessy6:25
xG 0.11–0.09 (56%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Kelly – Paille – Caron9:49
xG 0.32–0.47 (40%)attempts 13–9goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Boychuk15:25
xG 0.66–0.35 (65%)attempts 20–10goals 1–3
- Corvo – Seidenberg14:53
xG 0.45–0.25 (64%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Ference – Boychuk2:01
xG 0.14–0.03 (84%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little15:44
xG 0.57–0.35 (62%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
- Antropov – Miettinen – Stapleton6:24
xG 0.20–0.13 (60%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Wellwood – Kane – Burmistrov10:34
xG 0.13–0.23 (36%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Glass9:51
xG 0.02–0.52 (3%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stuart – Jones11:06
xG 0.46–0.44 (51%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Stuart – Byfuglien2:00
xG 0.03–0.13 (17%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien16:51
xG 0.50–0.72 (41%)attempts 15–18goals 3–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).