Fri, Feb 17, 2012·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Colorado Avalanche 3, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 17 | 28 | 08 | 323 |
| EDM | 09 | 110 | 08 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:13COLErik JohnsonAssists: Mark Olver, Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 3:55COLMark OlverGWGAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 9:37COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Paul Stastny, Ryan O'Reilly · Snap, 0.32 xG3–0
- P2 14:41EDMRyan JonesAssists: Ben Eager, Jeff Petry · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:50EDMShawn Horcoff: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:27EDMJeff Petry: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:56COLShane O'Brien: Holding2 min
- P2 6:19COLKyle Quincey: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:19EDMBen Eager: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:34COLRyan O'Byrne: Holding2 min
- P2 10:34COLRyan O'Byrne: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:30EDMSam Gagner: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gagner won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Porter – Winnik7:18
xG 0.63–0.30 (68%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Olver – O'Reilly – Landeskog13:27
xG 0.75–0.43 (64%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Kobasew – Van Der Gulik – McLeod2:43
xG 0.05–0.03 (62%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Jones – Stastny10:36
xG 0.66–0.72 (48%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestO'Byrne – Hejda14:39
xG 1.18–0.58 (67%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Quincey – Johnson11:49
xG 0.45–0.54 (45%)attempts 7–6goals 2–0
- O'Brien – Wilson11:42
xG 0.39–0.56 (41%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Eberle – Hall14:41
xG 0.91–0.70 (57%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Smyth – Belanger – Eager2:05
xG 0.03–0.01 (69%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Eager – Petrell – Lander2:27
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Smyth – Belanger – Jones6:13
xG 0.17–0.41 (29%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Petry13:56
xG 0.89–0.63 (59%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Sutton – Barker10:33
xG 0.57–0.57 (50%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Whitney14:06
xG 0.38–0.77 (33%)attempts 11–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).