Sat, Feb 18, 2012·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Pittsburgh Penguins 6, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 17 | 28 | 315 | 630 |
| PHI | 213 | 110 | 18 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:17PITMatt CookeUnassisted · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 15:16PHIJaromir JagrAssists: Daniel Brière · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 15:34PHIJaromir JagrPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Kimmo Timonen · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 15:14PITJordan StaalSHAssists: Craig Adams · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 16:57PITMatt CookeSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P2 18:41PHIEric WellwoodUnassisted · Backhand, 0.19 xG3–3
- P3 0:37PITDustin JeffreyAssists: Matt Cooke · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–3
- P3 2:09PITPascal DupuisGWGAssists: Jordan Staal, Steve Sullivan · Snap, 0.18 xG5–3
- P3 9:02PITJames NealAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Chris Kunitz · Backhand, 0.07 xG6–3
- P3 19:41PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: James van Riemsdyk · Backhand, 0.12 xG6–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 4:07PHIBraydon Coburn: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:03PITCraig Adams: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 14:18PHIWayne Simmonds: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 15:21PITJordan Staal: Holding2 min
- P1 19:58PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:51PITPaul Martin: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:52PITJoe Vitale: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:56PITJordan Staal: Boarding2 min
- P2 9:56PHIKimmo Timonen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 11:32PHINicklas Grossmann: Holding2 min
- P2 14:58PITPascal Dupuis: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:31PITBrooks Orpik: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:57PHIScott Hartnell: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:57PITJoe Vitale: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestSullivan – Dupuis – Staal5:56
xG 0.77–0.03 (96%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Asham – Cooke – Jeffrey6:25
xG 0.69–0.18 (80%)attempts 8–4goals 2–1
- Kunitz – Malkin – Neal8:45
xG 0.67–0.47 (59%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Park – Adams – Vitale5:35
xG 0.03–0.14 (17%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Letang10:33
xG 1.49–0.10 (94%)attempts 17–7goals 3–0
- Michalek – Niskanen8:30
xG 0.56–0.36 (61%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Engelland – Letang2:01
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestTalbot – Wellwood – Couturier9:41
xG 0.36–0.08 (82%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek10:11
xG 0.21–0.63 (25%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Jagr – Brière – Read8:09
xG 0.10–0.65 (13%)attempts 5–8goals 0–2
- van Riemsdyk – Simmonds – Schenn8:07
xG 0.22–0.84 (21%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Carle3:01
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Coburn – Grossmann3:51
xG 0.19–0.16 (55%)attempts 1–6goals 1–0
- Meszaros – Grossmann10:23
xG 0.15–0.37 (29%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).