Sat, Feb 18, 2012·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Carolina Hurricanes 3, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 19 | 215 | 012 | 336 |
| NYI | 18 | 213 | 110 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:07NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Michael Grabner, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 13:47CARBrandon SutterAssists: Patrick Dwyer · Backhand, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 0:15CARJiri TlustyAssists: Jerome Samson · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 4:10NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Andrew MacDonald, PA Parenteau · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 8:01NYIFrans NielsenPPAssists: John Tavares, PA Parenteau · Slap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 10:58CARJaroslav SpacekAssists: Eric Staal · Slap, 0.01 xG3–3
- P3 0:38NYIJohn TavaresGWGAssists: Matt Moulson, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:07NYIMark Streit: Holding2 min
- P1 12:40NYIMarty Reasoner: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:40CARJeff Skinner: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:37NYIJohn Tavares: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:04CARTim Brent: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:16NYIMilan Jurcina: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:11CARJussi Jokinen: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00CARJay Harrison: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:00NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00CARJay Harrison: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Bowman – Skinner9:46
xG 0.48–0.26 (65%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Nodl – Sutter11:16
xG 0.26–0.56 (32%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Staal – Tlusty – Samson10:37
xG 0.45–0.79 (36%)attempts 15–7goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- Harrison – Faulk12:53
xG 0.42–0.47 (48%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Spacek – McBain11:46
xG 0.49–0.70 (41%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Allen – Gleason12:21
xG 0.36–1.19 (23%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Moulson – Tavares17:33
xG 1.68–0.50 (77%)attempts 14–18goals 2–1
- Pandolfo – Reasoner – Niederreiter6:18
xG 0.48–0.25 (66%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Rolston – Bailey – Martin8:54
xG 0.36–0.33 (53%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner8:36
xG 0.31–0.39 (44%)attempts 3–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – MacDonald13:08
xG 1.83–0.70 (72%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Ness3:30
xG 0.42–0.04 (91%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Staios – Ness6:50
xG 0.07–0.03 (66%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).