Sat, Feb 18, 2012·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Washington Capitals 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 08 | 18 | 08 | 124 |
| TBL | 110 | 111 | 02 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:10TBLTom PyattAssists: Teddy Purcell · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 1:50TBLSteven StamkosGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 9:31WSHBrooks LaichAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:04TBLBrett Clark: Interference2 min
- P1 13:17TBLVincent Lecavalier: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:44WSHBrooks Laich: Interference2 min
- P2 16:24WSHMike Green: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:16WSHMathieu Perreault: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 10:02WSHAlexander Semin: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:41WSHMarcus Johansson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laich won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Ovechkin – Johansson2:14
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Ward – Ovechkin – Johansson3:29
xG 0.06–0.04 (61%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Knuble – Laich – Ovechkin4:33
xG 0.10–0.19 (34%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Chimera – Semin – Perreault3:53
xG 0.20–0.35 (36%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Orlov3:49
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Orlov7:39
xG 0.31–0.40 (44%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
- Schultz – Green2:50
xG 0.10–0.23 (30%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Downie – Stamkos9:17
xG 0.48–0.13 (79%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Pyatt – Purcell9:23
xG 0.64–0.43 (60%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
- Hall – Malone – Thompson10:03
xG 0.26–0.54 (32%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGervais – Mikkelson8:23
xG 0.53–0.47 (53%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Clark – Gilroy10:24
xG 0.28–0.25 (53%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
- Brewer – Hedman17:01
xG 0.27–0.47 (37%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).