Sat, Feb 18, 2012·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Dallas Stars 1, Phoenix Coyotes 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 013 | 18 | 010 | 00 | 131 |
| PHX | 113 | 09 | 09 | 12 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:31PHXMikkel BoedkerAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 12:37DALMichael RyderAssists: Loui Eriksson, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
- OT 1:15PHXRadim VrbataGWGAssists: Ray Whitney · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:50DALSteve Ott: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:22DALJake Dowell: Charging2 min
- P1 16:27PHXKyle Chipchura: Interference2 min
- P1 19:35DALVernon Fiddler: Interference2 min
- P1 0:00PHXMartin Hanzal: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:14PHXChris Summers: Interference2 min
- P2 10:58PHXMichal Rozsival: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:59DALRyan Garbutt: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:41PHXRaffi Torres: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:08DALPhilip Larsen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBurish – Dowell – Garbutt4:05
xG 0.29–0.12 (72%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Ott – Wandell – Vincour6:45
xG 0.14–0.05 (73%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom7:25
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Ryder – Eriksson11:15
xG 0.60–0.91 (40%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Goligoski13:45
xG 0.58–0.07 (89%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Pardy – Larsen10:04
xG 0.43–0.21 (67%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Daley – Fistric13:43
xG 0.46–0.93 (33%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Gordon – Korpikoski3:28
xG 0.64–0.34 (65%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Doan – Gordon – Boedker2:30
xG 0.24–0.13 (65%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Gordon2:05
xG 0.07–0.05 (61%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Langkow – Torres – Boedker2:29
xG 0.01–0.01 (50%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSummers – Stone10:37
xG 0.61–0.47 (56%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Ekman-Larsson2:38
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Yandle2:06
xG 0.05–0.02 (77%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).