Sun, Feb 19, 2012·Centre Bell, Montreal
New Jersey Devils 3, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 112 | 17 | 16 | 325 |
| MTL | 04 | 09 | 19 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:03NJDZach PariseAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Adam Henrique · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 19:42NJDDavid ClarksonGWGAssists: Patrik Elias, Petr Sykora · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P3 1:46MTLMax PaciorettyPPAssists: Tomas Kaberle, David Desharnais · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 8:27NJDMatt TaorminaAssists: Mark Fayne, Dainius Zubrus · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 2:06NJDAnton Volchenkov: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:54NJDDavid Clarkson: Interference2 min
- P3 0:38NJDDainius Zubrus: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zubrus won the faceoff against Gomez
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestSykora – Elias – Clarkson12:28
xG 0.62–0.10 (86%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Kovalchuk – Parise – Henrique15:20
xG 0.38–0.13 (75%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Boulton – Palmieri – Josefson3:35
xG 0.08–0.03 (70%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Ponikarovsky – Bernier13:28
xG 0.16–0.17 (47%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Greene11:35
xG 0.66–0.12 (85%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Harrold – Taormina10:30
xG 0.34–0.11 (75%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Volchenkov – Greene4:20
xG 0.21–0.04 (85%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- White – Palushaj – Eller2:15
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty10:43
xG 0.12–0.10 (54%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Gomez – Kostitsyn – White13:01
xG 0.16–0.20 (45%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Cole – Pacioretty – Eller2:12
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kaberle – Subban2:11
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Kaberle – Emelin4:10
xG 0.08–0.13 (40%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Campoli – Weber3:19
xG 0.04–0.13 (21%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).