Sun, Feb 19, 2012·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Anaheim Ducks 2, Florida Panthers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 111 | 08 | 18 | 227 |
| FLA | 010 | 010 | 011 | 031 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:13ANATeemu SelanneGWGAssists: Bobby Ryan, Saku Koivu · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
- P3 19:45ANANiklas HagmanENAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.64 xG2–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:15FLAMike Weaver: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:38ANALuca Sbisa: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:39ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:39FLAKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:55ANALubomir Visnovsky: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 2:17ANAToni Lydman: Interference2 min
- P3 10:40FLAStephen Weiss: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Weiss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestBlake – Getzlaf – Perry12:24
xG 0.64–0.37 (64%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Ryan9:30
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Hagman – Parros – Pelley4:09
xG 0.15–0.10 (61%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Beleskey – Bonino7:55
xG 0.11–0.29 (28%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Fowler16:09
xG 0.87–0.35 (71%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- Visnovsky – Sbisa13:09
xG 0.10–0.36 (22%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Lydman – Brookbank10:50
xG 0.10–0.46 (17%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Skille – Matthias4:39
xG 0.30–0.03 (90%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Weiss – Versteeg6:25
xG 0.22–0.14 (61%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Skille – Matthias2:29
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Goc – Bergenheim13:05
xG 0.35–0.58 (37%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Ellerby14:03
xG 0.65–0.39 (62%)attempts 21–9goals 0–0
- Campbell – Strachan2:49
xG 0.06–0.04 (56%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Campbell – Ellerby3:05
xG 0.02–0.03 (39%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).