Sun, Feb 19, 2012·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Nashville Predators 3, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 210 | 15 | 06 | 321 |
| DAL | 18 | 05 | 111 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:49DALMichael RyderAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 15:39NSHGabriel BourqueAssists: David Legwand, Matt Halischuk · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 19:59NSHShea WeberPPAssists: Ryan Suter, Sergei Kostitsyn · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 16:05NSHColin WilsonGWGAssists: Jordin Tootoo, Pekka Rinne · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 15:11DALAlex GoligoskiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 19:09DALPhilip Larsen: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:38DALStephane Robidas: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 17:55NSHHal Gill: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTootoo – Spaling – Wilson10:07
xG 0.36–0.08 (82%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Legwand – Halischuk – Bourque7:34
xG 0.58–0.38 (60%)attempts 5–12goals 1–1
- Legwand – Tootoo – Wilson2:06
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Legwand – Erat – Kostitsyn3:22
xG 0.04–0.02 (71%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Josi11:01
xG 0.71–0.38 (65%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Suter – Weber18:35
xG 0.25–0.20 (56%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Gill – Klein3:16
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom9:21
xG 0.39–0.02 (96%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Dowell – Vincour – Garbutt3:30
xG 0.30–0.10 (75%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Ryder – Eriksson12:57
xG 0.50–0.39 (56%)attempts 18–5goals 1–1
- Burish – Dowell – Garbutt4:47
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Goligoski18:13
xG 0.38–0.26 (60%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Pardy – Larsen18:23
xG 0.72–0.72 (50%)attempts 24–16goals 1–0
- Daley – Fistric14:41
xG 0.35–0.58 (37%)attempts 10–12goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).