Sun, Feb 19, 2012·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Colorado Avalanche 1, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 06 | 120 | 06 | 132 |
| WPG | 06 | 38 | 211 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:45WPGEvander KaneAssists: Alexander Burmistrov, Kyle Wellwood · Backhand, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 3:30WPGBryan LittleGWGAssists: Andrew Ladd, Blake Wheeler · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 10:42COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Erik Johnson · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 11:28WPGKyle WellwoodAssists: Evander Kane, Blake Wheeler · Backhand, 0.23 xG1–3
- P3 5:40WPGAndrew LaddPPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Dustin Byfuglien · Snap, 0.23 xG1–4
- P3 15:41WPGBryan LittlePPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Dustin Byfuglien · Snap, 0.53 xG1–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 14:28COLPaul Stastny: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 6:11WPGChris Thorburn: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:52WPGDustin Byfuglien: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:31WPGNik Antropov: Interference2 min
- P3 0:27COLMatt Duchene: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:16COLCody McLeod: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 7:45WPGEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:45WPGEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:31COLKyle Quincey: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:52COLCody McLeod: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 14:52WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:52COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Duchene – Landeskog3:49
xG 0.43–0.06 (89%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Stastny – Duchene6:44
xG 0.37–0.10 (79%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Stastny – Olver2:00
xG 0.06–0.02 (76%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- McClement – Jones – Winnik4:30
xG 0.37–0.40 (48%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Wilson12:47
xG 0.57–0.19 (75%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- O'Byrne – Hejda12:18
xG 0.53–0.58 (48%)attempts 11–9goals 0–2
- Quincey – Johnson11:58
xG 0.30–0.55 (35%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Slater – Glass7:02
xG 0.14–0.07 (68%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Antropov – Fehr – Stapleton6:45
xG 0.25–0.18 (58%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Wellwood – Kane – Burmistrov8:32
xG 0.18–0.25 (42%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little9:02
xG 0.42–0.80 (34%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Oduya11:44
xG 0.37–0.16 (69%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Stuart – Jones13:33
xG 0.36–0.42 (46%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien13:29
xG 0.72–0.86 (45%)attempts 16–17goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).