Mon, Feb 20, 2012·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Ottawa Senators 6, New York Islanders 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 315 | 112 | 25 | 632 |
| NYI | 05 | 05 | 018 | 028 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:08OTTErik KarlssonGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 1:35OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Nick Foligno, Chris Neil · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P1 14:03OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Sergei Gonchar · Snap, 0.20 xG3–0
- P2 9:37OTTChris PhillipsPPAssists: Kyle Turris, Sergei Gonchar · Slap, 0.04 xG4–0
- P3 9:49OTTBrian LeeAssists: Erik Karlsson, Erik Condra · Slap, 0.02 xG5–0
- P3 10:57OTTJason SpezzaPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Filip Kuba · Slap, 0.07 xG6–0
Penalties (12)
- P1 10:23OTTJared Cowen: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:00NYIPA Parenteau: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:11NYIPA Parenteau: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 15:11NYIPA Parenteau: Misconduct10 min
- P2 9:20NYISteve Staios: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 12:59NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:59OTTZack Smith: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:54OTTNick Foligno: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 17:31NYINino Niederreiter: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:49NYIPA Parenteau: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 10:26NYIJay Pandolfo: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:29OTTNick Foligno: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Greening – Turris12:02
xG 0.97–0.54 (64%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Daugavins – Condra – Smith9:23
xG 0.55–0.37 (60%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Butler8:27
xG 0.71–0.80 (47%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Neil – Foligno – O'Brien9:56
xG 0.15–0.32 (31%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Phillips15:27
xG 1.06–0.85 (55%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Lee – Cowen11:25
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Kuba – Karlsson14:13
xG 0.72–1.22 (37%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Okposo – Tavares2:15
xG 0.38–0.01 (96%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Rolston – Bailey – Martin5:48
xG 0.43–0.15 (75%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner8:55
xG 0.58–0.40 (59%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Pandolfo – Reasoner – Niederreiter8:18
xG 0.25–0.39 (39%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – MacDonald15:11
xG 0.93–0.57 (62%)attempts 13–13goals 0–2
- Staios – Ness14:29
xG 0.43–0.70 (38%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Eaton – Jurcina12:33
xG 0.57–0.98 (37%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).