Mon, Feb 20, 2012·RBC Center, Raleigh
Washington Capitals 0, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 05 | 06 | 06 | 017 |
| CAR | 316 | 112 | 112 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:41CARJustin FaulkPPGWGAssists: Tim Brent, Jiri Tlusty · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 5:09CARAnthony StewartAssists: Eric Staal, Jiri Tlusty · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 19:30CARAndreas NodlAssists: Brandon Sutter · Snap, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 5:56CAREric StaalSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.24 xG0–4
- P3 5:51CAREric StaalAssists: Jaroslav Spacek · Snap, 0.13 xG0–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:29WSHRoman Hamrlik: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 5:13CARDerek Joslin: Elbowing2 min
- P2 7:25WSHMatt Hendricks: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:25CARDerek Joslin: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:31WSHMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:31CARDerek Joslin: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:58WSHKarl Alzner: Holding2 min
- P2 16:49CARJustin Faulk: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:49WSHTroy Brouwer: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:38WSHMike Knuble: Holding2 min
- P3 7:39CARTim Brent: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:08WSHMathieu Perreault: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Skinner won the faceoff against Laich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKnuble – Hendricks – Laich4:05
xG 0.33–0.13 (72%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Brouwer – Perreault7:59
xG 0.21–0.12 (63%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Halpern – Ward – Beagle8:06
xG 0.09–0.05 (65%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Chimera – Semin – Johansson6:14
xG 0.48–0.60 (44%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hamrlik – Wideman13:04
xG 0.61–0.61 (50%)attempts 9–18goals 0–1
- Schultz – Green14:33
xG 0.20–0.39 (34%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Alzner – Carlson12:52
xG 0.25–0.61 (29%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Tlusty – Samson10:19
xG 1.06–0.49 (68%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Dwyer – Skinner8:33
xG 0.32–0.21 (60%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Nodl – Sutter – Bowman10:46
xG 0.16–0.27 (37%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpacek – McBain7:21
xG 0.59–0.04 (94%)attempts 13–5goals 2–0
- Harrison – Faulk9:49
xG 0.71–0.27 (72%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Harrison – McBain2:17
xG 0.09–0.31 (23%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).