Tue, Feb 21, 2012·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Winnipeg Jets 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 115 | 216 | 118 | 16 | 555 |
| WPG | 110 | 210 | 15 | 01 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:31WPGDustin ByfuglienPPAssists: Tim Stapleton, Bryan Little · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 15:50PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Scott Hartnell, Matt Carle · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 1:09PHIScott HartnellPPAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Kimmo Timonen · Wrist, 0.45 xG2–1
- P2 7:52WPGAndrew LaddPPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Tim Stapleton · Snap, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 8:56WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Bryan Little, Dustin Byfuglien · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 11:14PHIMax TalbotAssists: Andrej Meszaros, Nicklas Grossmann · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 4:57WPGEvander KanePPAssists: Tim Stapleton · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 19:50PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.17 xG4–4
- OT 4:16PHIJaromir JagrGWGAssists: Daniel Brière · Snap, 0.22 xG5–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:59WPGAlexander Burmistrov: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:04PHIMax Talbot: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:57WPGToby Enstrom: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:34PHIBraydon Coburn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:59PHIDaniel Brière: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:39WPGJim Slater: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:39WPGJim Slater: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:39PHIMatt Read: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Giroux – Simmonds12:16
xG 0.85–0.29 (75%)attempts 23–6goals 1–1
- van Riemsdyk – Voracek – Schenn8:18
xG 0.65–0.13 (83%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Jagr – Brière – Read11:40
xG 0.47–0.33 (59%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Talbot – Voracek – Couturier2:29
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKubina – Carle14:53
xG 0.90–0.18 (83%)attempts 21–4goals 0–0
- Timonen – Coburn14:05
xG 0.99–0.35 (74%)attempts 22–10goals 0–0
- Meszaros – Grossmann12:48
xG 0.25–0.56 (31%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Wellwood – Kane – Burmistrov13:11
xG 0.23–0.44 (35%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Glass10:20
xG 0.26–0.49 (34%)attempts 4–12goals 0–2
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little13:23
xG 0.59–0.90 (40%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Antropov – Fehr – Stapleton6:06
xG 0.10–0.55 (15%)attempts 3–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Enstrom – Byfuglien20:06
xG 0.67–0.73 (48%)attempts 17–25goals 1–0
- Stuart – Jones10:52
xG 0.29–0.81 (27%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Oduya18:04
xG 0.35–0.93 (27%)attempts 7–21goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).