Tue, Feb 21, 2012·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Edmonton Oilers 6, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 117 | 417 | 18 | 642 |
| CGY | 17 | 04 | 011 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:12CGYScott HannanAssists: Paul Byron, Krys Kolanos · Slap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 18:48EDMJordan EberleAssists: Sam Gagner, Corey Potter · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 8:09EDMAles HemskyGWGAssists: Taylor Hall, Shawn Horcoff · Deflected, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 12:21EDMEric BelangerAssists: Ben Eager · Snap, 0.36 xG3–1
- P2 12:51EDMSam GagnerAssists: Jordan Eberle, Ryan Smyth · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–1
- P2 18:56EDMRyan SmythAssists: Sam Gagner, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–1
- P3 17:29EDMTaylor HallPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Ryan Whitney · Snap, 0.10 xG6–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:35EDMLadislav Smid: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 14:12CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:37CGYMark Giordano: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 19:57CGYMark Giordano: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Gagner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSmyth – Gagner – Eberle12:55
xG 1.61–0.24 (87%)attempts 15–9goals 3–0
- Horcoff – Hemsky – Hall13:52
xG 0.84–0.26 (77%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Belanger – Eager – Paajarvi11:19
xG 0.58–0.33 (64%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Hordichuk – Petrell – Lander5:11
xG 0.02–0.16 (11%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Petry18:55
xG 1.38–0.21 (87%)attempts 23–8goals 2–0
- Whitney – Potter16:45
xG 1.40–0.48 (75%)attempts 19–13goals 2–1
- Sutton – Gilbert15:11
xG 0.62–0.28 (69%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKolanos – Byron – Horak6:43
xG 0.36–0.08 (81%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Jackman – Stajan – Bouma10:57
xG 0.15–0.09 (61%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Tanguay – Cammalleri2:11
xG 0.01–0.06 (18%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Iginla – Jokinen – Comeau2:26
xG 0.06–0.67 (8%)attempts 2–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Giordano14:22
xG 0.34–0.08 (80%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Sarich – Brodie9:39
xG 0.20–0.14 (58%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Hannan – Bouwmeester2:29
xG 0.06–0.03 (69%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).