Wed, Feb 22, 2012·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Washington Capitals 2, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 011 | 011 | 213 | 235 |
| OTT | 27 | 29 | 110 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:36OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Jason Spezza, Milan Michalek · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 14:13OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 3:37OTTMilan MichalekPPGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Daniel Alfredsson · Tip-in, 0.25 xG0–3
- P2 12:08OTTChris PhillipsPPAssists: Nick Foligno, Chris Neil · Slap, 0.04 xG0–4
- P3 2:19WSHJohn CarlsonPPAssists: Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 9:57WSHMathieu PerreaultAssists: Jason Chimera, Alexander Semin · Deflected, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 18:47OTTNick FolignoENAssists: Chris Neil, Sergei Gonchar · Wrist, 0.60 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 10:09OTTChris Neil: Elbowing2 min
- P2 3:03WSHMike Green: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:37OTTErik Karlsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:03WSHDennis Wideman: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:29WSHTroy Brouwer: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 12:14OTTZack Smith: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:14WSHBrooks Laich: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:50OTTNick Foligno: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:19OTTMilan Michalek: Interference2 min
- P3 0:22OTTKyle Turris: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laich won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKnuble – Laich – Brouwer6:07
xG 0.28–0.04 (88%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
- Chimera – Semin – Perreault3:54
xG 0.24–0.05 (84%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Laich – Brouwer – Johansson4:19
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Halpern – Ward – Beagle9:07
xG 0.10–0.06 (63%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Green12:39
xG 0.48–0.28 (63%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson12:04
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Schultz – Alzner2:03
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDaugavins – Condra – Smith6:36
xG 0.23–0.06 (80%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Butler8:42
xG 0.18–0.20 (48%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Neil – Foligno – O'Brien9:08
xG 0.28–0.32 (47%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Greening – Turris11:18
xG 0.27–0.47 (36%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Karlsson17:07
xG 0.71–0.61 (54%)attempts 9–20goals 2–1
- Lee – Cowen9:56
xG 0.17–0.15 (54%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Phillips16:09
xG 0.56–0.71 (44%)attempts 12–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).