Thu, Feb 23, 2012·RBC Center, Raleigh
Anaheim Ducks 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 113 | 010 | 19 | 05 | 1 | 337 |
| CAR | 18 | 113 | 010 | 01 | 0 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:52CARJerome SamsonAssists: Eric Staal, Jiri Tlusty · Backhand, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 14:40ANALuca SbisaAssists: Nick Bonino, Devante Smith-Pelly · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 5:40CARJamie McBainPPAssists: Jaroslav Spacek, Anthony Stewart · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 9:35ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. ANA Teemu Selanne stopped
- 2. CAR Jeff Skinner stopped
- 3. ANA Saku Koivu scored
- 4. CAR Eric Staal stopped
- 5. ANA Corey Perry stopped
- 6. CAR Brandon Sutter stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:19ANABobby Ryan: Boarding2 min
- P1 11:18CAREric Staal: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 4:20ANABobby Ryan: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00CARBrandon Sutter: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:04CARPatrick Dwyer: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:19CARJeff Skinner: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:02CARJerome Samson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Bonino
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Blake – Getzlaf – Perry10:52
xG 0.74–0.77 (49%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Ryan11:43
xG 0.53–0.58 (48%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Hagman – Bonino – Smith-Pelly4:17
xG 0.10–0.18 (36%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Hagman – Cogliano – Bonino2:57
xG 0.27–0.57 (32%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Sbisa14:35
xG 0.78–0.56 (58%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Fowler15:05
xG 0.49–1.21 (29%)attempts 13–19goals 0–1
- Lydman – Brookbank12:17
xG 0.56–1.32 (30%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Bowman – Skinner4:30
xG 0.89–0.21 (81%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Tlusty – Samson12:42
xG 0.65–0.32 (67%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Nodl – Sutter – Bowman3:53
xG 0.27–0.00 (99%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Nodl – Sutter8:41
xG 0.49–0.81 (38%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Gleason15:14
xG 1.42–0.59 (71%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Spacek – McBain7:24
xG 0.81–0.55 (59%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Harrison – Faulk13:51
xG 0.48–0.74 (40%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).